Raw mean vs shrunk Vårdbetyg

A common raw ranking sorts health centres straight by their average in the National Patient Survey 2025. The problem: a unit where only a handful of patients responded can end up on top by pure chance. Here we show the same health centres ranked two ways, side by side, so you can see what happens once the basis and accessibility are weighed in.

Two rankings of the same units

Raw mean– the survey’s equally weighted average straight up, ignoring how many responded.
Vårdbetyg score – the same average pulled toward the national average by how many responded (Bayesian shrinkage), and combined with objective accessibility (waiting times).

The gap between a unit’s two positions comes from two things: (1) shrinkage toward the number of responses – few responses pull toward the national average – and (2) the accessibility weight – low accessibility pulls the final score down. This is method communication: the cards below say nothing about a single health centre being good or bad, only that a raw mean ranks them wrong.

How the Vårdbetyg score is calculated, step by step

The units that move the most

Vårdcentral KvarnportenRaw 21 → score 989 (down 968)Rank 21 on the raw mean (90.1), based on 92 responses. With shrinkage toward the national average and accessibility weighed in, it lands at rank 989.

Vårdcentral LångshyttanRaw 98 → score 1041 (down 943)Rank 98 on the raw mean (86.5), based on 93 responses. With shrinkage toward the national average and accessibility weighed in, it lands at rank 1041.

Hälsocentralen SjälevadRaw 222 → score 1113 (down 891)Rank 222 on the raw mean (83.8), based on 119 responses. With shrinkage toward the national average and accessibility weighed in, it lands at rank 1113.

Vårdcentral EngelbrektRaw 161 → score 1039 (down 878)Rank 161 on the raw mean (84.9), based on 154 responses. With shrinkage toward the national average and accessibility weighed in, it lands at rank 1039.

Vårdcentral MoraRaw 346 → score 1162 (down 816)Rank 346 on the raw mean (82.1), based on 158 responses. With shrinkage toward the national average and accessibility weighed in, it lands at rank 1162.

Lövångers hälsocentralRaw 188 → score 977 (down 789)Rank 188 on the raw mean (84.4), based on 73 responses. With shrinkage toward the national average and accessibility weighed in, it lands at rank 977.

Top 25 on the raw mean – and where they land

The table lists the 25 health centres that rank highest on the raw mean, with their Vårdbetyg position alongside. The Responses column explains only a small part of the move. The heaviest factor is accessibility (waiting times), which is part of the Vårdbetyg but not of the raw mean.

Raw #	Health centre	Raw mean	Responses	Vårdbetyg	Score #	Move
1	Hansakliniken Kalmar	96.0	91	93.0	1	–
2	Föllinge hälsocentral	94.0	83	89.1	29	↓27
3	Fridkullens vårdcentral och BVC	93.7	79	91.7	3	–
4	Kvarnholmens vårdcentral Praktikertjänst	93.0	104	92.4	2	↑2
5	Vårdcentralen Hökarängen	92.5	115	90.2	14	↓9
6	Vega Vårdcentral och BVC i Fristad	92.3	78	91.4	4	↑2
7	Hälsocentralen Sjöstaden	91.8	101	83.7	371	↓364
8	Praktikertjänst Öregrunds Vårdcentral	91.8	118	90.8	7	↑1
9	Vårdcentralen Gränsbygdskliniken	91.8	98	84.2	331	↓322
10	Vårdcentralen Hälsan Malmö	91.8	38	84.3	323	↓313
11	Ros Care Vårdcentral	91.7	58	90.6	9	↑2
12	Djursholms Doktorn	91.5	87	90.7	8	↑4
13	Myrvikens hälsocentral	91.5	89	89.1	30	↓17
14	Bra Liv Tenhult vårdcentral	91.4	71	89.5	24	↓10
15	Djurö vårdcentral + filialverksamheter i Värmdö skärgård	91.4	114	90.1	15	–
16	Hallens hälsocentral	91.2	54	85.2	240	↓224
17	Närhälsan Öjersjö vårdcentral	90.7	75	90.5	10	↑7
18	Vårdcentralen Sandskogen Ystad	90.7	75	89.2	28	↓10
19	Nötkärnan Guldheden Familjeläkare och BVC	90.6	95	90.9	6	↑13
20	Sjöstadsdoktorn	90.1	119	90.0	16	↑4
21	Vårdcentral Kvarnporten	90.1	92	75.9	989	↓968
22	HMC Vårdcentral i Bjärred	90.0	95	88.9	38	↓16
23	Hedda och Hector City Husläkarmottagning	89.9	75	88.7	49	↓26
24	Scania Hälsocenter	89.9	159	90.3	12	↑12
25	Stocksunds vårdcentral	89.7	76	87.1	103	↓78

↓ = the unit ranks lower on the Vårdbetyg score than on the raw mean (shrinkage or low accessibility pulled it down). ↑ = the opposite. At 30responses a unit’s own result and the national average carry exactly equal weight.

In short: a raw mean rewards luck and small numbers – a unit with an extreme average on a few responses tops the list until you ask how reliable it is. The Vårdbetyg score asks that for you.

What the score does not capture

Shrinkage handles uncertainty – the risk that a small basis lands wrong. It does not correct systematic bias. A health centre in an affluent area with healthy, confident patients tends to receive higher ratings than one serving a population with heavier care needs, for reasons that say nothing about how well the clinic does its job. The Vårdbetyg score does not adjust for such differences in patient mix (case-mix), any more than a raw mean does.

Two more things worth remembering: the National Patient Survey measures patient experience, not medical outcomes, and it is answered by roughly four in ten of those asked – the ones who respond are not necessarily representative. The score is therefore best read as a stable measure of how patients experience a clinic, not as a fair verdict on the quality of care independent of who the patients are. Compare clinics in similar areas where you can, and weigh in what you know yourself.

We spell this out because a comparison that hides its own limits is worth less, not more. The whole method is open to recalculation on the methodology page.

Source: National Patient Survey 2025 (SKR). Open data at resultat.patientenkat.se.